Recession expected by 2020

According to a survey by the International Association of Financial Executives Institutes (IAFEI) together with Duke University and Grenoble Ecole de Management, two-thirds of CFOs across the globe expect a recession by the third quarter of 2020. Despite this, they expect capital spending and revenue to increase moderately over the rest of 2019.

67% of CFOs in the US expect a recession by the third quarter if 2020, while 84% believe a recession will be underway by the first quarter of 2021.

A recession is on the horizon, but has been pushed back 6-9 months, according to the survey authors.

The factors most likely to impact growth at the company level are GDP growth (according to 47% o CFOs), consumer spending (39%), commodity prices (31%) and interest rates (29%).

CFOs also expect capital spending to increase y 5% over the next 12 months. The Optimum Index for the US economy continued its downward trend in the first quarter of 2019, falling to 65 from 70 in September 2018. Optimism in Europe rebounded, climbing two points to 59 in the first quarter from the last quarter of 2018.

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