The EU chessboard after the elections

Political intelligence group Cattaneo Zanetto & Co reports that the results of the European elections of  23-26 May change the composition of the European Parliament. For the first time since 1979 (first election by universal suffrage), the two traditional groups, the European People’s Party (EPP) and the Socialists and Democrats (S&D), will not have an absolute majority. The EPP has 181 seats, while the S&D won 152, but the sum (333 seats) will not be enough to guarantee the necessary majority, which is set at 376 seats. It should be noted that, despite the fact that the two traditional parties have been curtailed, they still represent the two main forces within the Parliament. This has been possible, in particular, thanks to the votes of the smaller Member States. In the larger EU countries, the two traditional forces only won in Germany (EPP) and Spain (PES/S&D). In the last elections, however, their weight has been reduced in France, Italy, Poland and, in the case of the socialists, also in Germany and the United Kingdom. The two traditional parties will therefore have to seek for new alliances, in particular they will look at the liberals, who have seen a significant increase in seats, reaching 108 in total. In this regard, it should be noted that the Group of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) has taken the name of “Renew Europe”, which also includes Emmanuel Macron’s French party, La Republique en March.

The EPP, S&D and Renew Europe together would reach 441 seats, and if the alliance were to include the 75 seats of the Greens, there would be a solid majority of 516 seats. However, both Liberals and Greens, who may be natural allies for the S&D, will probably be asking for a very high price to enter the majority, such as the Presidency of the European Parliament or the Presidency of key committees.

The Liberals and the Greens are the “great revelations” of these European elections, the former in particular will be the tiebreaker for the creation of any majority coalition: a large pro-EU coalition, a centre-left or centre-right coalition will not be able to exceed the threshold of 50% without the support of Renew Europe.

As far as the results of the sovereign block are concerned, although the excellent performance of the Rassemblement National of Marine Le Pen in France and the League of Matteo Salvini in Italy, sovereigns have not elected a significant number of deputies. The European Alliance of Peoples and Nations, renamed Identity and Democracy, it will be able to count on 73 seats, these are not sufficient for a possible majority with the EPP and other sovereign groups. As for the other sovereign group, Conservatives
and Reformists (ECR), which includes Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, has obtained 62 seats, down from te previous elections. Moving on to the 5-Star Movement and
Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party, the latter announced his intention to rebuild the Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy (EFDD) Group. However, the group, due to a lack of members (44 seats) and affiliated parties (3), has been disbanded. In addition to the two parties already mentioned, the Croatian party Zivid Zivid would have joined the group, but the creation of a parliamentary group needs to count on at least 25 deputies representing no less than 7 countries. Both parties have now joined the ranks
of non-inscrits members (NI).

Finally, the European United Left/Nordic Green Left (GUE/NGL) groups are observing a decline, winning only 41 seats, 11 less than in the previous elections. 

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